Fraunhofer ISI unveils roadmap for alternative battery technologies for the period up to 2045.
A new roadmap from Fraunhofer ISI deals with alternative battery technologies for the period up to 2045. Their technology-specific advantages, future areas of application, markets and supply chains are analyzed as well as Europe’s position, costs and industrial scalability. The roadmap also shows areas of action for the EU and Germany with regard to technological sovereignty. The roadmap was created as part of the BMBF accompanying research BEMA II.
Due to their wide range of uses in electric cars or trucks as well as in stationary and mobile devices, lithium-ion batteries (LIBs for short) are currently the dominant battery technology on the market. In 2023, global market demand is expected to have a capacity of almost one TWh achieved. Due to the increasing market penetration of electric vehicles, battery demand will continue to increase significantly and multiply.
In addition to competitiveness, questions of geopolitical dependencies and thus production locations, supply relationships and ultimately technological sovereignty play a central role in the battery ecosystems currently emerging internationally. There are still a number of challenges in Germany and Europe, such as reducing dependencies on raw materials, securing access to battery cells and upstream supply chains, as well as efforts to reduce resource consumption and establish a recycling economy.
The question also arises as to whether and which alternative battery technologies could help to reduce the above-mentioned dependencies in the context of future increasing demands and at the same time achieve economic,
To this end, the Fraunhofer ISI has looked at alternative battery technologies – in particular selected metal-ion, metal-sulfur, metal-air and redox flow batteries – in a new roadmap for the period up to 2045. It analyzes technological advantages, future areas of application, markets and supply chains, Europe’s position as well as costs and industrial scalability. The roadmap also shows areas of action for the EU and Germany with regard to technological sovereignty. The findings obtained are based on a comprehensive literature search, an online survey, a detailed expert survey and an expert workshop.
The roadmap answers a number of questions that currently arise with regard to alternative battery technologies:
- What technological advantages do alternative battery technologies have? Many alternative battery types such as metal-ion (e.g. sodium-ion or zinc-ion batteries) or metal-air batteries (e.g. zinc-air batteries) offer high potential for greater sustainability, lower costs or less resource consumption, but have sometimes also have disadvantages such as lower energy density or low technological maturity. Metal-sulfur batteries can have a higher energy density and their costs are expected to be significantly lower than those of LIBs due to the low sulfur costs per kWh. Redox flow batteries are already available on the market, but still need to improve in terms of costs and CO 2 Footprint.
- Which applications are suitable for alternative battery technologies? Sodium-ion batteries are about to be widely commercialized for mobile applications; the first sodium-ion batteries are already being used in electric two-wheelers and small cars. Lithium-sulfur batteries could be used in larger drones from 2035 and even in other electric aircraft from 2040. In stationary applications, the requirements for energy density, for example, are lower; storage systems that are already available on the market, such as redox flow batteries, salt water or sodium-sulfur high-temperature batteries, could become more relevant in the near future – just like sodium ion batteries. Batteries that are characterized by good resource availability, safety and deep discharge capability or zinc or aluminum-ion batteries.
- Are there alternative battery technologies that significantly reduce dependence on raw materials? Due to their lower energy density compared to LIBs, some promising alternative battery technologies require larger amounts of raw materials to achieve the same storage capacity. However, many of the non-lithium-based technologies require fewer critical raw materials than LIBs. Due to the lack of large application areas and markets, the production and supply of lithium, nickel and cobalt will remain critical for the time being – especially in the next 5 to 10 years.
- Are alternative battery technologies foreseeable that can be produced and scaled similarly to LIBs? Metal-ion batteries that are not LIBs are promising in the coming decade because their production steps are very similar to those of LIBs. Existing production technologies and environments could be used directly (drop-in technologies) or only need to be adapted to a limited extent.
- Can alternative battery technologies become cheaper than LIBs? Although alternative battery technologies have potentially lower material costs than LIBs, their cell costs are likely to be initially higher due to low production scale. Scaling production brings significant cost advantages, but this requires sufficiently large markets and applications on a GWh scale.
- How is Europe positioned when it comes to alternative battery technologies? Patent and publication analyzes show that EU countries are better positioned, for example, when it comes to redox flow batteries, lithium-air or aluminum-ion batteries than they are currently in LIBs – but Japan and China remain leaders here. For some alternative battery technologies, the EU countries are very dynamic with annual growth rates of between 10 and 50 percent; for LIB the growth is around 10 percent.
Dr. Annegret Stephan, scientific coordinator of the roadmap at Fraunhofer ISI, also points out the need for support from politicians in order to tap the potential of alternative battery technologies:
Especially in the initial phase, when future market development is still uncertain, incentives for the industry can be helpful be.
“A holistic political approach that takes into account the entire supply chain, basic research on technology-specific issues, patents, production processes, securing resources and the perspectives of end users is essential here. This approach should include not only large companies but also SMEs and start-ups.”
According to the study author: However, such a holistic approach involves high costs and risks and can therefore only be applied to a limited number of technologies. Systematic and regular screening processes for the selection of key technologies as well as criteria for a possible termination of funding are particularly important.
The team of authors of the roadmap draws the following conclusion: LIBs will continue to dominate the market, but selected alternative battery technologies can provide relief from raw material, production and delivery dependencies in certain markets and applications and thus contribute to technological sovereignty – but further efforts are needed to achieve this Research and development in Germany and the EU is necessary and worthwhile.
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Are there alternatives to the lithium-ion battery? New roadmap outlines areas of application, markets, costs and challenges for alternative battery technologies, September 14, 2023