EVs, data centers, and hydrogen to quadruple Brazil’s power demand share by 2060, study finds
Recent analysis by Aurora Energy Research unveils strategic insights into demand and how emerging technologies could reshape historical patterns in Brazil.
SAO PAULO (AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH)—Aurora Energy Research, the global provider of power market analytics, has published a new report examining the role of emerging technologies in reshaping electricity demand in Brazil. The study finds that Electric Vehicles (EVs), data centers, and hydrogen electrolysers could account for up to 16% of national power consumption by 2060, up from 2% today, fundamentally transforming the country’s energy system.
The findings come at a critical moment for Brazil, as the country enters a new phase of electricity demand transformation, driven not by traditional industrial or commercial sectors, but by rapidly evolving technologies. Aurora finds that base demand from industrial, commercial, and residential consumers is expected to grow moderately and retain an inelastic profile. In contrast, the new demand streams examined show higher growth potential and may adopt flexible load characteristics, depending on regulatory and market developments. Electric Vehicles alone are projected to account for 3% of electricity demand by 2060 if they achieve 20% fleet penetration, rising to 16% under full electrification. However, the impact on the power system will vary greatly depending on the nature of charging—whether it remains inflexible or evolves into a smart, price-responsive model aligned with infrastructure rollout and market liberalisation.
As for data center growth, Aurora highlights that more than 15 GW of connection requests have been submitted through 2035, equivalent to 14% of projected demand, but constraints in grid capacity and technical limitations may moderate this trajectory. By 2060, data centers could contribute 4% of total demand. Their profile is expected to be largely inflexible, reflecting critical uptime requirements and a persistent baseload character. Hydrogen electrolyzers are expected to see the fastest growth among the technologies studied, driven by both European hydrogen import demand and a growing domestic market. Aurora sees electrolyzers in Brazil accounting for 8% of total electricity demand by 2060, supported by a robust pipeline of large-scale projects.
To assess the broader implications of this shift, Aurora developed two alternative scenarios in addition to its Central Scenario. Its “Ambitious Growth Scenario” assumes a faster and broader uptake of these new demand drivers, which results in an additional 36 GW of renewable capacity and 14 GW of thermal capacity being required by 2060. In the “Higher Flexibility Scenario,” the analysis assumes that EVs and hydrogen electrolysers become more flexible in their consumption. This flexibility leads to higher solar capture prices, rising by over 10% in the Northeast, and reduces curtailment, with a 55% drop projected by 2060.
Aurora emphasises that as Brazil continues to decarbonize through a renewables-heavy energy mix, understanding how and when these new technologies consume electricity is critical. These new technologies introduce structural complexity for the power system. Their large-scale potential will affect long-term capacity planning, while their load flexibility, depending on how it develops, could reshape intraday price dynamics and impact system efficiency.
Matheus Dias, Research Senior Associate, at Aurora Energy Research says:
Historically, electricity consumption in Brazil has followed macroeconomic and population trends—but the rise of EVs, data centers, and hydrogen electrolyzers could disrupt this pattern.
“Though these technologies currently account for less than 2% of total consumption, they could drive up to 16% of demand by 2060. Our Central Scenario projects 4.75 GW of new data center capacity in Brazil by 2035—a figure significantly below the 15.1 GW in grid connection requests already registered with the Ministry of Mines and Energy. This lower projection reflects structural limitations in the power system. A recent Aurora survey reinforces this view: 58% of respondents identified data centers as the fastest-growing demand segment but also pointed to grid infrastructure as the main obstacle to realising this growth. “
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EVs, data centers, and hydrogen to quadruple Brazil’s power demand share by 2060, study finds, source
