Cheaper and safer sodium-ion batteries on the horizon, reports IDTechEx.
As the world progresses rapidly towards electrification, the energy storage industry is increasingly reliant on critical raw materials such as lithium and cobalt. Diversification of battery chemistries is critical for long-term capacity growth. It should be self-evident that no single battery chemistry possesses all the attributes for every single application – each market has its nuances and requires unique solutions.
The sodium-ion (Na-ion) chemistry will certainly not be the answer for all applications; however, it will be well-suited to complement, rather than displace, the existing and future lithium-ion technologies in many applications. Concerns of energy security and geopolitical considerations in the supply chain also drive nations without local access to lithium-ion raw materials to seek alternative chemistries to meet energy storage demands.
Small Pilot Plants and Big Plans
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Currently, mainly pilot plants are running, and a few smaller factories are starting up, which only produce a few gigawatt hours (GWh) of Na-ion batteries per year, but the capacities that have been publicly announced by various raw material manufacturers alone add up to well over 100 GWh over the next three years.
However, once the production processes are known, it takes less than two years to build up further capacities. By 2025, significantly more capacity can be built up than has been financed so far if investors are found for it in the course of 2023. The forecast of a radical conversion of a large part of the industry to a new technology in a few years may sound bold, but in the last five years alone, this has happened twice in the battery industry with NMC811 and LFP.
Na-ion requires hardly any new plant technology, just different starting materials and production parameters. The latest report from IDTechEx, “Sodium-ion Batteries 2023-2033: Technology, Players, Markets, and Forecasts“, covers the global commercialization efforts of Na-ion batteries by analyzing patents and finds that China is taking the lead once again.
Outlook: Demand Not Limited by Lack of Raw Materials
IDTechEx forecast that by 2025, around 10 GWh of Na-ion batteries will be installed as significant manufacturing capacities come online and existing Li-ion lines are converted to Na-ion production. Success (or failure) for one player can significantly impact the market. A CAGR of 27% is expected for the period 2025-2033. Growth follows a similar market growth rate as that of Li-ion batteries.
Over the next 10 years, the addressable markets will likely be far higher than the expansion of Na-ion supply chains and manufacturing capacities or even demand. But there may be potential for more rapid growth than forecast once the technology is trusted, qualified, bankable, available, etc.
Importantly, Na-ion is a drop-in technology to Li-ion’s current production lines. Gigafactories can be retrofitted to produce Na-ion cells relatively quickly. The production capacities of the material manufacturers also indicate that significantly more companies will build their own sodium batteries in 2024 and that there could be much larger capacities in 2025.
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Cheaper and Safer Sodium-Ion Batteries on the Horizon, Reports IDTechEx, BOSTON, July 14, 2023
