CATL warns on solid state batteries, sees supply shortfall ahead.
[MacProTricks] The rules governing stock markets in China are different from those in other countries. Recently, CATL, the largest battery manufacturer in China, unveiled plans to invest huge amounts of money to increase its production capacity. But first, it had to convince the Shenzhen Stock Exchange that its plans were realistic and in line with sound business practices.In response to several questions posed by the stock exchange, the company said that solid-state battery development is facing technical difficulties that will prevent mass production from taking place for a long time yet.
According to CnEVPost, CATL was asked to explain the development of technological avenues for solid state batteries, sodium ion batteries and hydrogen fuel cells, together with the risks that each could pose to their operation and capacity expansion.
Solid-state batteries and hydrogen fuel cells have certain technical features and benefits, but there are still unresolved technical issues and barriers to mass production, the company said.
These new technologies are subject to cost-effectiveness, performance indicators and industry chain support constraints, and it will take a long time from technical problem solving and customer certification approval to mass production, CATL said, adding that it is still a long way from achieving results. mature commercial applications.
The announcement quoted an earlier speech by Ouyang Minggao, an academic at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who said it would take about 10 years for solid-state battery technology to achieve large-scale application and have a significant impact on the market landscape.
The first generation of solid state batteries, which have roughly the same energy as current lithium-ion batteries, are expected to emerge in 2025, with their market share approaching 1% by 2030, CATL said.
It added that the second generation of solid state batteries with new cathode and anode materials is expected to appear after 2030 and the next generation of solid state batteries is expected to hit the market after 2035.
Supply constraints ahead
The Shenzhen Stock Exchange was concerned that CATL was spending too much on increasing production, but the company replied that even with the extra investment, it would still have a production capacity deficit of 430 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2025.
It said that it produced 106.41 GWh of batteries from January to September 2021, and that the new production line currently in operation will have a design capacity of 220 to 240 GWh per year after stable operation.
Looking at future capacity demand and the company’s existing capacity, the company told Shenzen Stock Exchange that it will have a capacity gap of around 430 GWh by 2025, unless it adds production capacity.
The company
The company’s capital raising will be used to add lithium-ion battery capacity of approximately 135 GWh, which is in line with business development needs.
Even then, the company will still have a capacity gap of 295 GWh by 2025.
CATL is vying to supply batteries to NIO, who want their new ET7 sedan to have a range of 600 miles (NEDC) from a 150 kWh battery pack. At NIO Day 2020, founder William Li said the ET7 battery is more accurately described as semi-solid state.
William Li, NIO’s founder, chairman and CEO, clarified in an interview after NIO Day 2020 that the NIO ET7’s solid-state battery is more accurately described as a semi-solid-state battery. Investors close to NIO say the company began preparing a 150 kWh semi-solid-state battery pack project in 2019 and first approached CATL for a solution.
NIO’s engineering team spent nearly half a year working with CATL executives, but the battery manufacturer claimed the company’s requirements could not be met.
The sources claimed. Recently, the conversations with Apple went nowhere either.
They felt that it was impossible to achieve and that no one in the industry offered such a solution.
NIO has reportedly approached WeLion, a much smaller Chinese battery company, to get semi-solid batteries for the ET7, but CATL is back in the game and is reportedly developing a new battery with an ultra-high nickel content to win back the business after NIO made a major investment in WeLion.
The result of all this – if one is to believe one of the world’s largest battery companies – is that there are solid-state batteries, and then there are better solid-state batteries.
Toyota says it will bring cars to market in 2025 that are powered by solid-state batteries, but they will be first-generation products. If you want to know when genuine future batteries will arrive, CATL’s estimates that they will be commercially available in 2035 seem to be the most accurate forecast. If Toyota can get there 10 years ahead of CATL, it will really be big news.
READ the latest Batteries News shaping the battery market
CATL Warns On Solid-State Batteries, Sees Supply Shortfall Ahead, January 22, 2022
