Battery cost forecasting: a review of methods and results with an outlook to 2050.
[Abstract] Battery cost forecasting: a review of methods and results with an outlook to 2050. Rechargeable batteries are a key enabler to achieve the long-term goal to transform into a climate-neutral society. Within this transformation, battery costs are considered a main hurdle for the market-breakthrough of battery-powered products.Encouraged by this, various studies have been published attempting to predict these, providing the reader with a large variance of forecasted cost that results from differences in methods and assumptions.
This article creates transparency by identifying 53 studies that provide time- or technology-specific estimates for lithium-ion, solid-state, lithium–sulfur and lithium–air batteries among more than 2000 publications related to the topic.
The relevant publications are clustered according to four applied forecasting methods: technological learning, literature-based projections, expert elicitations and bottom-up modeling. Method-specific assumptions are analyzed in-depth and discussed with regard to their results and empirical evidence.
Further, 360 extracted data points are consolidated into a pack cost trajectory that reaches a level of about 70 $ (kW h)−1 in 2050, and 12 technology-specific forecast ranges that indicate cost potentials below 90 $ (kW h)−1 for advanced lithium-ion and 70 $ (kW h)−1 for lithium-metal based batteries.
Recent studies show confidence in a more stable battery market growth and, across time-specific studies, authors expect continuously declining battery cost regardless of raw material price developments. However, large cost uncertainties are found to exist on technological and chronological levels that will remain a key challenge for researchers and industry in the future.
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Battery cost forecasting: a review of methods and results with an outlook to 2050, August 2, 2021
